Stents versus bypass surgery: 3-year mortality risk of patients with coronary interventions aged 50+ in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: Due to demographic aging, the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is expected to increase in the future, resulting in a growing demand for stent and bypass interventions. This study aims to investigate the mortality risk of patients following conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or endovascular procedure by the implantation of bare-metal stents (BMS) or drug-eluting stents (DES). METHODS: Based on a random sample of 250,000 members of Germany's largest health insurance 'Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen' (AOK) from 2004 to 2015, incident CAD patients were analyzed by Cox Proportional-Hazard models. Risk adjustment was made for sex, age, other cardiac diseases, non-cardiovascular comorbidities and years since intervention. Due to later admission of DES and thus a shorter observation time, mortality was examined for 3 years since the intervention. RESULTS: BMS represented the most frequent procedure (48%). We found similar proportions of CABG (19%) and DES interventions (23%). After risk adjustment, the models showed a 21% (p = 0.004) lower mortality risk of patients with DES and also a 21% (p = 0.002) lower mortality risk of CABG patients compared to persons with BMS. CONCLUSION: Based on a large-scale dataset, our study demonstrated survival advantages of CABG and DES interventions over BMS, with no differences between the DES and CABG groups. The results help to assess the risks of coronary interventions. Aspects of quality of life, severity of postoperative physical limitations, duration of rehabilitation, patients' preferences, and aspects of cost-effectiveness for hospitals and society should be further considered.

Sex and Gender Differences in Environmental Influences on Dementia Incidence in Germany, 2014-2019: An Observational Cohort Study Based on Health Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing debate about whether environmental characteristics influence dementia risk like individual traits do, and whether these differ by sex and gender. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the influence of regional characteristics on the incidence of dementia and explores sex and gender differences using individual-level health information and regional characteristics. METHODS: Using a random sample of 250,000 people aged 70 + insured through Germany's largest German public health agency, we analyzed quarterly data about diagnoses and place of residence from 2014 to 2019. Using five-digit postal codes, we added data on various dimensions of regional characteristics offered by the INKAR database and the 2011 Census database. We used multilevel survival regressions to tease out regional incidence differences while accounting for spatial clustering. RESULTS: After adjusting for multi-morbidity and relocation-related selection bias, we saw that people living in regions with the highest tertile of income (HR = 0.87, p < 0.001), and who had the highest tertile of remaining life expectancy at age 60 (HR = 0.93, p = 0.012) had lower dementia risks. There was no gender difference in the regional income effect, but the effect of education (HR = 0.91, p = 0.015) was significant only for men and remaining life-expectancy was significant only for women (HR = 0.93, p = 0.026). CONCLUSION: Environmental characteristics related to wealth and health resources of a region influence the risk of dementia among the elderly in Germany. This effect is independent of the health profiles of the individuals and differs between the two genders. Health policies need to acknowledge these modifiable risk factors and consider how they affect men and women differently.

Social disparities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence rates in Germany: a county-scale explainable machine learning approach.

OBJECTIVES: Knowledge about the socioeconomic spread of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany is scattered across different studies. We explored whether COVID-19 incidence rates differed between counties according to their socioeconomic characteristics using a wide range of indicators. DATA AND METHOD: We used data from the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI) on 204 217 COVID-19 diagnoses in the total German population of 83.1 million, distinguishing five distinct periods between 1 January and 23 July 2020. For each period, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnoses on the county level and characterised the counties by 166 macro variables. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the age-standardised incidence rates with the macrostructures of the counties and used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to characterise the 20 most prominent features in terms of negative/positive correlations with the outcome variable. RESULTS: The first COVID-19 wave started as a disease in wealthy rural counties in southern Germany and ventured into poorer urban and agricultural counties during the course of the first wave. High age-standardised incidence in low socioeconomic status (SES) counties became more pronounced from the second lockdown period onwards, when wealthy counties appeared to be better protected. Features related to economic and educational characteristics of the young population in a county played an important role at the beginning of the pandemic up to the second lockdown phase, as did features related to the population living in nursing homes; those related to international migration and a large proportion of foreigners living in a county became important in the postlockdown period. CONCLUSION: High mobility of high SES groups may drive the pandemic at the beginning of waves, while mitigation measures and beliefs about the seriousness of the pandemic as well as the compliance with mitigation measures may put lower SES groups at higher risks later on.

Progression to severe visual impairment and blindness in POAG patients: pace and risk factors-a cohort study using German health claims data.

OBJECTIVE: Glaucoma is a leading cause of severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/B) worldwide. Hence, it is of utmost importance to explore relevant risk factors and study the pace of progression to SVI/B. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We used a random sample of 250 000 persons from administrative individual-level health records of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen between 2004 and 2015. We identified 3535 primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients aged 55 and older and followed them for up to 10 years. Monocular and binocular SVI/B were defined by the ICD-10 classifications H54.0 and H54.4. Ophthalmological and chronic disease risk factors were analysed by applying a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: The risk of SVI/B in POAG patients was significantly increased by the presence of specific additional eye diseases such as secondary glaucoma (HR: 3.08, p<0.001), retinal vascular occlusion (HR: 3.00, p<0.001) or age-related macular degeneration (AMD) (HR: 2.26, p<0.001). The risk was highest in the first 2 years after the POAG diagnosis and significantly decreased after the fifth year (HR: 0.36, p=0.002). Ocular injuries, other ocular diseases, non-ophthalmological comorbidities, and age and sex had no significant influence (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Although progression to SVI/B is relatively rare in POAG patients in Germany, one must be aware of additional risk factors, such as secondary glaucoma, retinal vascular occlusion and AMD. Regular ophthalmological examinations help prevent the progression of SVI/B, especially in the first years after the POAG diagnosis. Specific, targeted, and timely treatments for the other eye diseases could help prevent or delay SVI/B.

Regional Characteristics of the Second Wave of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and COVID-19 Deaths in Germany.

(1) Background: In the absence of individual level information, the aim of this study was to identify the regional key features explaining SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths during the upswing of the second wave in Germany. (2) Methods: We used COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from 1 October to 15 December 2020, on the county-level, differentiating five two-week time periods. For each period, we calculated the age-standardized COVID-19 incidence and death rates on the county level. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the incidence and death rates by 155 indicators and identified the top 20 associations using Shap values. (3) Results: Counties with low socioeconomic status (SES) had higher infection and death rates, as had those with high international migration, a high proportion of foreigners, and a large nursing home population. The importance of these characteristics changed over time. During the period of intense exponential increase in infections, the proportion of the population that voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the last federal election was among the top characteristics correlated with high incidence and death rates. (4) Machine learning approaches can reveal regional characteristics that are associated with high rates of infection and mortality.

Incidence, individual, and macro level risk factors of severe binocular visual impairment and blindness in persons aged 50 and older.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to estimate the incidence of severe binocular vision impairment and blindness (SVI/B) and to identify eye diseases and regional risk factors of persons with SVI/B at ages 50 years and older. METHODS: We designed an observational cohort study based on longitudinal, multifactorial, and administrative information of a random sample of 250,000 persons at ages 50+. All individuals were included in the process-produced health claims register of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse in 2004, and were followed until 2015. We analyzed ten selected eye diseases and regional characteristics as risk factors for SVI/B using Cox models, adjusting for demographic characteristics and multi-morbidity. RESULTS: The age-standardized incidence was 79 new diagnoses of SVI/B per 100,000 person-years (95%-CI: 76-82); 77 for males (72-82) and 81 for females (77-85). By adjusting for multiple factors, the model revealed and confirmed that individuals who were very old (Hazard ratio90+: 6.67; 3.59-12.71), male (1.18; 1.01-1.38), had multi-morbidities (three+ diseases: 3.36; 2.51-4.49), or had diabetes (1.26; 1.07-1.49) had an increased risk of SVI/B. Compared to persons without the particular eye disease (all p<0.001), persons diagnosed with secondary glaucoma had a multiple-adjusted 4.66 times (3.17-6.85) higher risk, those with retinal vascular occlusion had a 4.51 times (3.27-6.23) higher risk, and those with angle-closure glaucoma had a 4.22 times (2.60-6.85) higher risk. Population density was not a risk factor, while persons living in wealthier regions had 0.75 times (p=0.003) to 0.70 times (p<0.001) the risk of SVI/B than persons in the least wealthy regions of Germany. CONCLUSION: The study revealed and confirmed some profound risk factors of SVI/B at both the individual and the macro level. The sizes of the effects of the characteristics of the living context were smaller than those of the individual characteristics, especially for some severe eye diseases. While urbanity and access to health services had no effect, regional economic wealth was a risk factor for SVI/B. Future health care measures and advice by physicians should take these dimensions of inequalities in SVI/B into account.

Prevalence and Mortality of Venous Leg Diseases of the Deep Veins: An Observational Cohort Study Based on German Health Claims Data.

This study estimates the prevalence and mortality of diseases of the deep veins of the legs such as deep vein thrombosis (DVT), postthrombotic syndrome (PTS), and venous leg ulceration (VLU). We used a random sample of 250 000 patients at age 50+ years of the register of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse from 2004 to 2015. Selected manifestations of venous diseases assumed as risk factors for mortality were analyzed using Cox models while adjusting for various basic demographic and health characteristics. The prevalence in 2004 was 0.05% for DVT of the femoral veins, 0.50% for DVT of any deep veins, 0.86% for PTS, and 0.91% for VLU. The mortality rate in 2004 to 2015 was 20.40 deaths/100 person-years for DVT of the femoral veins, 10.69 for DVT of any deep veins, 4.34 for PTS, and 7.02 for VLU. The model revealed a 35% higher risk (p < .001) in patients with any DVT, an 88% higher mortality (p < .001) for femoral DVT, a 23% higher risk (p < .001) for VLU, and no health disadvantage in persons with PTS. Our study revealed an increased mortality for patients with VLU and DVT. Even after adjustment for embolic events and infections of the venous ulcers mortality remained significantly higher.

Diabetic retinopathy screening in incident diabetes mellitus type 2 in Germany between 2004 and 2013 - A prospective cohort study based on health claims data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess factors associated with diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening uptake following a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 diabetes) in Germany. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A nationally representative prospective sample of individual-level health claims data for 250,000 members from Germany's largest public insurance provider in 2004-2013 was assessed. In the sample, 26,560 persons with incident type 2 diabetes were identified. Factors associated with subsequent DR screening were assessed using descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier estimator, and Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: On average 27.6 visits to an ophthalmologist per 100 person-years in persons with incident type 2 diabetes occurred. Half of all incident cases (Kaplan-Meier estimator) had not seen an ophthalmologist after more than two years (2.25 years) following their diabetes diagnosis. In the multivariate analysis, an older age (from hazard ratio HR(70-74) = 0.93 [95%-CI: 0.89-0.97] to HR(90+) = 0.50 [95%-CI: 0.42-0.60] compared to persons aged 50-69 years) and a higher disability level (i.e. HR(disability level 3) = 0.30 [95%-CI: 0.25-0.36]) were associated with a lower likelihood, while female sex (HR = 1.12 [95%-CI: 1.08-1.15]), six or more comorbidities (HR = 1.26 [95%-CI: 1.15-1.37]), moderate (HR = 1.51 [95%-CI: 1.46-1.56]) or severe type 2 diabetes (HR = 1.53 [95%-CI: 1.45-1.61]) as well as being enrolled in a type 2 diabetes disease management program (HR = 1.78 [95%-CI: 1.69-1.87]) were associated with a higher likelihood of DR screening. CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of newly diagnosed persons with type 2 diabetes did not follow current German recommendations for DR screening, impeding timely detection and management of potential complications. This was more apparent among persons who were men, older or had a disability. The uptake of screening was considerably greater among those enrolled in a diseases management program. These factors need to be considered when planning DR screening services and/or referrals.

Pharmacoepidemiological assessment of adherence and influencing co-factors among primary open-angle glaucoma patients-An observational cohort study.

The goal of this study was to assess the adherence of primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients to medication, and to determine co-factors influencing adherence, using a representative sample of members of the largest German public health insurer. The observational cohort study was based on a longitudinal data set from 2010-2013 and included 250,000 insured persons aged 50 and older with 10,120 diagnosed POAG patients. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to investigate several aspects of glaucoma, such as prevalence, adherence, and co-factors influencing adherence. The main outcome measured adherence with prescriptions filled within a year. Multivariate panel regression analysis was used to determine the co-factors influencing this adherence. Prevalence of POAG was 3.36% [CI: 3.28-3.43%], with 2.91% [CI: 2.81-3.01%] for males and 3.71% [CI: 3.61-3.81%] for females, increasing with age. The mean level of adherence in terms of prescriptions filled was 66.5% [CI: 65.50-67.60%]. The results of this analysis revealed a significant influence of age, duration of the disease, care need, distance to death, and multimorbidity as co-factors of non-adherence, whereas gender had no influence. The analysis provided detailed information about POAG health care aspects concerning prevalence and adherence. The most endangered risk groups for non-adherence were patients aged 50-59, patients older than 80 years, patients with a longer duration of POAG, patients with care needs, and patients with three or more severe diseases in addition to glaucoma. To know the predictors responsible for an increased risk to develop POAG is of importance for all persons involved in health care management. Therefore effective strategies to increase awareness of patients and medical care personnel about non-adherence and the importance of a regular and continuous medication to avoid further nerve fiber damage and possible blindness have to be developed.

Expansion or compression of long-term care in Germany between 2001 and 2009? A small-area decomposition study based on administrative health data.

BACKGROUND: Studies state profound cross-country differences in healthy life years and its time trends, suggesting either the health scenario of expansion or compression of morbidity. A much-discussed question in public health research is whether the health scenarios are heterogeneous or homogeneous on the subnational level as well. Furthermore, the question arises whether the morbidity trends or the mortality trends are the decisive drivers of the care need-free life years (CFLY), the life years with care need (CLY), and, ultimately, the health scenarios. METHODS: This study uses administrative census data of all beneficiaries in Germany from the Statutory Long-Term Care Insurance 2001-2009. We compute the CFLY and CLY at age 65+ for 412 counties. The CFLY and CLY gains are decomposed into the effects of survival and of the prevalence of care need, and we investigate their linkages with the health scenarios by applying multinomial regression models. RESULTS: We show an overall increase in CFLY, which is higher for men than for women and higher for severe than for any care need. However, spatial variation in CFLY and in CLY has increased. In terms of the health scenarios, a majority of counties show an expansion of any care need but a compression of severe care need. There is high spatial heterogeneity, with expansion-counties surrounding compression-counties and vice versa, which is mainly caused by divergent trends in the prevalence of care need. We show that mortality is responsible for the absolute changes in CFLY and CLY, while morbidity is the decisive driver that determines the health scenario of a county. CONCLUSION: Combining regionalized administrative data and advanced statistical methods permits a deeper insight into the complex relationship between health and mortality. Our findings demonstrate a compression of life years with severe care need, which however, depends on the region of residence. To attenuate regional inequalities, more efforts are needed that improve health by medical and infrastructural interventions and by the exchange of insights in the efficiency of small- and large-area policy measures between the vanguard and the rearguard counties. In future research, the underlying latent mechanisms should be investigated in more detail.

Contextual and individual determinants of health among Aussiedler and native Germans.

Aussiedler, also referred to as ethnic German immigrants from countries of the former Soviet Union and other parts of Eastern Europe, constitute one of the largest immigrant groups in Germany. Little is known about their health relative to the health of native Germans. Using the German Microcensus 2005, which includes information about the health of 10,022 Aussiedler and 322,813 native Germans aged 20+ we find that in both groups high regional centrality depresses health, as does living in a region with low GDP. The proportion of foreigners does not have any consistent effect. The two groups differ with respect to educational gradients in health: there is none for Aussiedler, while there is a steep gradient for native Germans. Aussiedler who have lived in Germany for less than 15 years are healthier than native Germans which supports the healthy migrant hypothesis. Their deteriorating health status by duration of stay suggests that migration, deprivation and discrimination may have negative effects on the health of Aussiedler.